The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced on May 13 that both U.S. and global wheat production are expected to decrease in the 2026/27 season, with U.S. winter wheat forecast down by 25 percent from last year to 1,048 million bushels due to sharply reduced Hard Red Winter production.
This update is significant as it reflects ongoing challenges faced by wheat producers, including drought conditions and freeze damage affecting crop quality and yields. The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report follows a recent Crop Progress report indicating that about 40 percent of winter wheat crops are rated poor or very poor in the Southern Plains.
According to the WASDE report, “U.S. wheat production is forecast at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million bushels from 2025-26 because of lower harvested area and yields.” The report also projects ending stocks will fall by 18 percent to reach 762 million bushels, while the season-average farm price is forecast at $6.50 per bushel—an increase of $1.50 from the previous year.
Globally, the outlook shows total production at an estimated 819.1 million tons for the upcoming season, compared with last year’s record output of 843.8 million tons. “A large share of the lower production is from all the major wheat exporting countries,” with reductions expected in the United States, European Union, Argentina, and Australia.
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Looking ahead, observers note that these developments could influence market prices for futures contracts but caution against making hasty decisions based solely on current projections.
