Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey's lighter touch has led to his state's economy recovering three times as quickly from COVID as that of Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott is pushing more draconian lockdown measures.
Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey's lighter touch has led to his state's economy recovering three times as quickly from COVID as that of Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott is pushing more draconian lockdown measures.
Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy have led their states’ economies most successfully during the 2020 COVID crisis, according to an analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unemployment data.
Employment in Arizona, Alaska, Nebraska and South Dakota is recovering the most rapidly, according to BLS. The four states’ unemployment rates in August were the closest to February lows.
The average national increase in unemployment for all 50 states between February and August: 126 percent, or four times as bad as it has been in Arizona and Alaska and three times as in South Dakota and Nebraska.
All four sites have GOP governors who opted not to implement statewide mask orders.
The unemployment rate in Arizona was 5.9 percent in August, compared to 4.5 percent in February, before COVID hit, an increase of 31 percent.
In Alaska, it was 7.4 percent, versus 5.8 percent in February, a 28 percent increase.
South Carolina, Florida and Colorado have all seen joblessness increases greater than 150 percent. In New Jersey, California, Illinois and New York, they have approached or been greater than 200 percent.
In Nevada, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, unemployment rates in August are 300 percent higher than they were in February, or ten times as bad as in Arizona and Alaska.
Economy half full, not half empty
That Arizona’s economy is recovering so much faster should offer some solace to Ducey, who pushed milder business restrictions than most other big state GOP governors, yet has still faced heavy criticism from within his own party for not reopening faster.
Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, also a Republican, sued Ducey in early September over his summer restrictions on business, which were limited to gyms, theaters, water parks and bars.
Still, Arizona employment growth has outpaced all of the continental U.S., even topping South Dakota, where GOP Gov. Kristi Noem never locked down the state’s economy at all.
Arizona’s joblessness has improved five times as quickly as Florida’s and three times as fast as in Texas, where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is still enforcing heavy lockdown measures, keeping bars closed and forcing other businesses to operate at limited capacity.
Abbott is facing an uprising from business owners, longtime supporters who say they will oppose his re-election and may even try to recall him.
Both in the spring and summer, Abbott’s lockdown measures have been among the most draconian of any GOP governor. In April, he even closed state parks and golf courses in Texas. In July, he issued a statewide mask mandate requiring Texans to wear masks in "public spaces" in counties with 20 or more cases.
Ducey’s spring lockdown was targeted to specific businesses; he allowed state parks and golf courses to stay open and even encouraged their use.
Aloha means quarantine in your hotel
But the U.S. joblessness carnage is worst in Hawaii, where unemployment has increased 363 percent, from 2.7 percent in February, to 12.5 percent in Aug.
Nevada and Hawaii have been especially hit by the national shut down of the hospitality industry. One in four Nevadans work in hotels and travel; one in five Hawaiians do.
Their governors have also enforced among the strictest lockdowns. Hawaii Gov. David Ige has effectively shut down all travel to the island, ordering 14 day quarantines for all arrivals.
Ice ordered a second lockdown late last month, even closing all state parks, beaches and hiking trails.
As of Thursday, 122 Hawaiians had died from or with COVID, according to that state’s health department. 85 percent of the deceased were over age 60; 67 percent were over age 70. None were under age 30.
The state has 1.416 million residents.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Controls (CDC), Hawaii had the highest state rate of death from flu or pneumonia in the U.S. in 2017, with 637. Its leading causes of death were heart disease (2,575) and cancer (2,456).
Unemployment Rates by state - February vs. August 2020
| State | Governor | Party | Statewide
Mask Order | Feb | Aug | CHG | % CHG |
| Alaska | Mike Dunleavy | R | No | 5.8 | 7.4 | -1.6 | -28% |
| Arizona | Doug Ducey | R | No | 4.5 | 5.9 | -1.4 | -31% |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts | R | No | 2.9 | 4.0 | -1.1 | -38% |
| South Dakota | Kristi Noem | R | No | 3.3 | 4.8 | -1.5 | -45% |
| Louisiana | John Bel Edwards | D | Yes | 5.2 | 7.6 | -2.4 | -46% |
| Mississippi | Tate Reeves | R | Yes | 5.4 | 7.9 | -2.5 | -46% |
| Idaho | Brad Little | R | No | 2.7 | 4.2 | -1.5 | -56% |
| Montana | Steve Bullock | D | Yes | 3.5 | 5.6 | -2.1 | -60% |
| Utah | Gary Herbert | R | No | 2.5 | 4.1 | -1.6 | -64% |
| Wisconsin | Tony Evers | D | Yes | 3.5 | 6.2 | -2.7 | -77% |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Stitt | R | No | 3.2 | 5.7 | -2.5 | -78% |
| Wyoming | Mark Gordon | R | No | 3.7 | 6.6 | -2.9 | -78% |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | D | Yes | 3.6 | 6.5 | -2.9 | -81% |
| Georgia | Brian Kemp | R | No | 3.1 | 5.6 | -2.5 | -81% |
| Kentucky | Andy Beshear | D | Yes | 4.2 | 7.6 | -3.4 | -81% |
| West Virginia | Jim Justice | R | Yes | 4.9 | 8.9 | -4.0 | -82% |
| Texas | Greg Abbott | R | Yes | 3.5 | 6.8 | -3.3 | -94% |
| Missouri | Mike Parson | R | No | 3.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | -100% |
| Vermont | Phil Scott | R | Yes | 2.4 | 4.8 | -2.4 | -100% |
| Indiana | Eric Holcomb | R | Yes | 3.1 | 6.4 | -3.3 | -106% |
| Alabama | Kay Ivey | R | Yes | 2.7 | 5.6 | -2.9 | -107% |
| Maryland | Larry Hogan | R | Yes | 3.3 | 6.9 | -3.6 | -109% |
| Arkansas | Asa Hutchinson | R | Yes | 3.5 | 7.4 | -3.9 | -111% |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont | D | Yes | 3.8 | 8.1 | -4.3 | -113% |
| Iowa | Kim Reynolds | R | No | 2.8 | 6.0 | -3.2 | -114% |
| Maine | Janet Mills | D | Yes | 3.2 | 6.9 | -3.7 | -116% |
| Ohio | Mike DeWine | R | Yes | 4.1 | 8.9 | -4.8 | -117% |
| Pennsylvania | Tom Wolf | D | Yes | 4.7 | 10.3 | -5.6 | -119% |
| Kansas | Laura Kelly | D | Yes | 3.1 | 6.9 | -3.8 | -123% |
| Washington | Jay Inslee | D | Yes | 3.8 | 8.5 | -4.7 | -124% |
| North Dakota | Doug Burgum | R | No | 2.2 | 5.0 | -2.8 | -127% |
| Delaware | John Carney | D | Yes | 3.9 | 8.9 | -5.0 | -128% |
| Oregon | Kate Brown | D | Yes | 3.3 | 7.7 | -4.4 | -133% |
| Virginia | Ralph Northam | D | Yes | 2.6 | 6.1 | -3.5 | -135% |
| New Mexico | Michelle Lujan Grisham | D | Yes | 4.8 | 11.3 | -6.5 | -135% |
| Minnesota | Tim Walz | D | Yes | 3.1 | 7.4 | -4.3 | -139% |
| Michigan | Gretchen Whitmer | D | Yes | 3.6 | 8.7 | -5.1 | -142% |
| New Hampshire | Chris Sununu | R | No | 2.6 | 6.5 | -3.9 | -150% |
| Tennessee | Bill Lee | R | No | 3.4 | 8.5 | -5.1 | -150% |
| South Carolina | Henry McMaster | R | No | 2.5 | 6.3 | -3.8 | -152% |
| Florida | Ron DeSantis | R | No | 2.8 | 7.4 | -4.6 | -164% |
| Colorado | Jared Polis | D | Yes | 2.5 | 6.7 | -4.2 | -168% |
| New Jersey | Phil Murphy | D | Yes | 3.8 | 10.9 | -7.1 | -187% |
| California | Gavin Newsom | D | Yes | 3.9 | 11.4 | -7.5 | -192% |
| Illinois | J.B. Pritzker | D | Yes | 3.4 | 11.0 | -7.6 | -224% |
| New York | Andrew Cuomo | D | Yes | 3.7 | 12.5 | -8.8 | -238% |
| Nevada | Steve Sisolak | D | Yes | 3.6 | 13.2 | -9.6 | -267% |
| Rhode Island | Gina Raimondo | D | Yes | 3.4 | 12.8 | -9.4 | -276% |
| Massachusetts | Charlie Baker | R | Yes | 2.8 | 11.3 | -8.5 | -304% |
| Hawaii | David Ige | D | Yes | 2.7 | 12.5 | -9.8 | -363% |
| 174.10 | 385.20 | -62.99 | |||||
| 3.482 | 7.704 | -125.99% |
*Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor Statistics
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