John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
Among Arizona’s counties, Apache County saw the largest increase in transfer dependency over the past 10 years, surging 13% from 39.6% in 2012 to 52.6% in 2022, and up 38.1% from just 14.5% in 1970. In dollar terms, government transfers per capita in Apache County jumped from $13,346 in 2012 to $24,021 in 2022, a stark contrast to the $2,311 recorded in 1970.
Cochise County followed with the second-largest increase in transfer dependency, increasing 10.8% from 27.2% in 2012 to 38% in 2022, and an overall increase of 32% from 1970’s 6% transfer dependency. This trend is reflected in per capita amounts, with residents of Cochise County receiving an average of $19,084 in transfer income in 2022, up from $11,531 in 2012 and more than double the $2,311 recorded in 1970.
Additionally, Apache County had the highest percentage of income derived from government transfers, at 52.6% in 2022, making it the county with the highest overall transfer dependency. Navajo County and Gila County followed closely behind, with transfer dependency rates of 47.8% and 44.9% in 2022, respectively.
Compared to 1970, Apache County increased by 38.1%, while Navajo County and Gila County have increased by 33% and 35.8%, respectively, showing sustained reliance on government transfers. Residents in Apache County received an average of $24,021 in transfers per capita, with Navajo County and Gila County close behind at $20,129 and $22,675, respectively.
For comparison, the statewide average was 20.7% in 2022, showing a higher dependency than the national average of 17.6%. On a per capita level, this translates to $12,093 per resident in 2022, compared to $11,542 nationwide.
Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).
In Arizona, reliance on government transfers was just 7.7% (or $1,807 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970. This has since increased to 20.7% (or $12,093 per capita) in 2022, reflecting a total increase of 13% since 1970. This shift is largely influenced by increased healthcare costs, and economic transformations that have reshaped income sources across the U.S.
In 2022, the primary government transfer programs in Arizona included:
- Social Security: $3,826 (31.6% of total transfers)
- Medicare: $2,669 (22.1% of total transfers)
- Medicaid: $2,950 (24.4% of total transfers)
- Income Maintenance Programs: $1,076 (8.9% of total transfers)
With 18.9% of the population aged 65 and older, Arizona has a significant demand for programs like Social Security and Medicare. However, counties with higher poverty rates also show elevated Medicaid and income maintenance participation.
Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans' income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,022 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,542 per capita) in 2022 nationwide. In Arizona, reliance on government transfers has similarly increased from 7.7% (or $1,807 per capita) in 1970 to 20.7% (or $12,093 per capita) in 2022, reflecting broader national trends.
According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.
| County | Dependency on Transfers (%) | Change Since 2012 | Change Since 1970 | Per Capita Amount (2022) | Per Capita Change Since 2012 | Per Capita Change Since 1970 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apache County | 52.6% | 13% | 38.1% | $24,021 | $10,675 | $21,710 |
| Cochise County | 38% | 10.8% | 32% | $19,084 | $7,553 | $17,640 |
| Coconino County | 20.8% | 3.1% | 11.8% | $12,264 | $4,230 | $10,533 |
| Gila County | 44.9% | 5.9% | 35.8% | $22,675 | $7,469 | $21,105 |
| Graham County | 40.2% | 7.7% | 30.5% | $16,472 | $5,852 | $14,818 |
| Greenlee County | 27.8% | 2% | 22.9% | $15,060 | $5,198 | $13,903 |
| La Paz County | 41.9% | 6.3% | 41.9% | $22,615 | $9,950 | $22,615 |
| Maricopa County | 16.3% | -0.3% | 9.3% | $10,359 | $2,384 | $8,591 |
| Mohave County | 34.4% | 0.5% | 25.5% | $15,357 | $4,397 | $13,327 |
| Navajo County | 47.8% | 9% | 33% | $20,129 | $7,829 | $18,123 |
| Pima County | 26.2% | 4.4% | 18% | $14,288 | $4,564 | $12,322 |
| Pinal County | 27.3% | 1.3% | 19.5% | $12,560 | $4,201 | $11,095 |
| Santa Cruz County | 27.5% | 5% | 19.6% | $13,158 | $4,722 | $11,505 |
| Yavapai County | 31.6% | 0.8% | 18.7% | $16,352 | $4,571 | $13,449 |
| Yuma County | 27.3% | 3.9% | 20.9% | $12,236 | $4,117 | $10,808 |
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