Grand Canyon Times

The Common Sense Institute released a report on the future of Arizona’s Universal Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, which concludes they will not drastically change state funding and budget levels and likely will accommodate the increasing shift away from public education in the state.

“Under this set of assumptions, CSI expects that the state will have 124,000 ESA program participants by the 2027-28 school year, at a total program cost of $900 million (fiscal year 2023 formula dollar amounts, and up from approximately $550 million today)," the report said. "However, over the same period, total public school enrollment will decline from 1,096,400 students to 1,087,800 students.”

The Arizona ESA program was started in 2012. The program gives families access to up to 90% of what state funding for that pupil would be, and puts it into a financial account where parents/guardians can access it to pay for allowed expenses related to education. 

Before the law change in 2022, ESA recipients largely were enrolled in state public schools. The Universal Eligibility change passed in 2022 meant all students were eligible for the funds as long as they fell within age limits and resided in Arizona. This contributed to the drastic increase in ESA participation — from 12,000 in 2022 to at least 56,000 today.  

There has been backlash on the expansion of this educational program and funding, mostly from Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, who said on Twitter,  “The school voucher program in its current form is not sustainable, and Republican legislators need to explain why they are forcing this runaway spending on Arizona taxpayers. We need to bring an end to this out-of-control and unaccountable spending, and I will work tirelessly to make that happen." 

Research from the CSI, however, shows that while there is a huge level of growth expected for participants in the ESA program—over double where it is now—there would not be any drastic changes to state funding or budget levels compared to their pre-pandemic spending. 

“Notably, were these 124,000 future ESA families to instead enroll in public district and charter schools, statewide K-12 expenditures would increase by approximately $100 million (since an ESA’s value is statutorily limited to 90% of a student’s funding formula equivalent)," the research said. "While universal ESA expansion will increase statewide K-12 expenditures relative to their post-2020 baseline trends, it does so largely by returning state per-pupil funding commitments to their pre-pandemic trajectory. Total expenditures remain below their public-school-funded alternative due to the 90% formula commitment.”  

The report also shows how the expected trends for private, charter and home-school enrollment growth under the new universal ESA program would mirror a similar trend the state saw in the years between the Great Recession and the pandemic, where Arizona students migrated into the newly opened charter schools and enrollment in K-12 public schools saw a minor decline in enrollment numbers.

In its bottom-line summary, the CSI report estimates that ESA participation will reach a more moderate level of growth once it tops 100,000 students in the next year. It also said that the expansion to universal ESA has largely supported middle-class families, most of which show a lower income level than the state median income.