Grand Canyon Times

As Arizona gears up for the primary elections on July 30, political analyst George Khalaf of Data Orbital provided insights into the state's electoral landscape during a recent webinar. 

Khalaf cautioned against presumptions regarding Democratic victories in the House or Senate, emphasizing the importance of data analysis over speculation.

“I want to say this clearly to anyone who's listening, no matter what party you're at and who you believe is, you know, should win or won't win, anyone who's telling you it's a slam dunk for Democrats to take the House or the Senate is inaccurate,” Khalaf told a webinar audience.  

“They're not looking at the data. There's people that have been saying that for the last number of cycles. A lot can happen between now and November. But Republicans still have a structural advantage, even with what's occurred recently, to be able to maintain control based solely upon the fact of the types of races that Democrats have to defend comparative to the types of districts and races that the Republicans have to defend. Again, politics comes down to numbers in terms of who's in the majority, and that is a big factor.”

The discussion during the Wednesday, April 24 edition of Data Orbital's 2024 Election Webinar Series focused on Arizona's post-filing electoral developments. 

The webinar delved into the latest updates on key districts and factors influencing the state's pivotal elections. 

Attendees received a comprehensive analysis of the evolving political landscape in Arizona as candidates prepare for the primaries and voters contemplate their choices for the future. 

“A big thank you to everyone who joined yesterday's webinar on the state of races throughout Arizona. We appreciate your active participation and the thoughtful questions posed during the session,” Data Orbital said on X. “Details for our May session will be announced soon. Stay tuned for the date and topic!” 

Data Orbital, founded in 2014 by Khalaf, began as a part-time startup with a focus on survey methodology and accuracy, evolving into a premier data and survey research firm. 

The firm offers polling services and data solutions for political clients. 

Data Orbital has become known for its accuracy in polling Arizona political races and is top-rated by FiveThirtyEight, featured in prominent news outlets.

See a graph below displaying comments Khalaf made on each race.

					George Khalaf's Forecast
District	House Candidate	Incumbent	Party	Primary	General election
1
	Selina Bliss	Incumbent	R	Likelier than not to be reelected	Confident that a Republican will win
	Quang Nguyen	Incumbent	R	Likelier than not to be reelected	Confident that a Republican will win
	Shawn Wildman		R
	Jay Ruby		D	None	None
	Marcia Smith		D	None	None
2
	Justin Wilmeth	Incumbent	R
	Ari Bradshaw		R
	Stephanie Simacek		D	"Against the three or the two Republicans. So obviously at least one Republican is going to make it through. I probably give that edge to incumbent Justin Wilmeth. I think it'll be tough to get both both Republican seats there.
	Tom Simes		Independent	None	None
3
	Joseph Chaplik	Incumbent	R	None	None
	Alexander Kolodin	Incumbent	R	None	None
	Richard Corles		D	None	None
4
	Matt Gress	Incumbent	R	"I can see the advantage is going to have to go to the incumbent. Matt Gress."	"I can see the advantage is going to have to go to the incumbent. Matt Gress."
	Pamela Carter		R	None	None
	Kelli Butler		D	None	None
	Karen Gresham		D	None	None
5
	Sarah Ligouri	Incumbent	D	None	None
	Charles Lucking	Incumbent	D	None	None
	Aaron Marquez		R	None	None
	Dorri Thyden		R	None	None
6
	Mae Peshalakai	Incumbent	D	None	None
	Myron Tsosie	Incumbent	D	None	None
	Angela Moleney
	Llyod Johnson		R	None	None
	Richard King		R	None	None
7
	David Marshall	Incumbent	R	He said Blackman and Marshall are the two candidate he'd handicap as being in the advantage
	Walter Blackman		R	He said Blackman and Marshall are the two candidate he'd handicap as being in the advantage
	Andrew Costanzo		R	None	None
	John Fillmore		R	"someone to watch"
	Baby Ingle		R	None	None
	Steven Slaton		R	"some things have come out recently about his candidacy that could make it, that could make it more precarious"
	Kevin Chiquete		D	None	None
	Nancy Hartl		D	None	None
8
	Caden Darrow		R		Democratic District
	Juan Mendez		D	None	"I would give the handicap to the current Democrat incumbents there."
	Brian Garcia		D	None	"I would give the handicap to the current Democrat incumbents there."
	Janeen Connolly		D	None	None
9
	Lorena Austin	Incumbent	D	Khalaf did not mention any names for District 9 but he noted that "There no longer was a primary. There were multiple candidates who had pulled papers. There's just two Republicans versus the two Democrat incumbents."	"On the House side, it's two against two. I would say that Republicans can pick up one seat. Very difficult to pick up both."
	Seth Blattman	Incumbent	D
	Kylie Barber		R
	Mary Ann Mendoza		R
10
	Ralph Heap		R	Running as a team-they have an advantage	No mention about the general election
	Justin Olson		R	Running as a team-they have an advantage	No mention about the general election
	Matt Greer		R		No mention about the general election
	Helen Hunter		D		No mention about the general election
11
	Michael Butts		D	"Fairly robust Democratic primary"	No mention about the general election
	Oscar De Los Santos	Incumbent	D	"Fairly robust Democratic primary"	No mention about the general election
	Junelle Cavero	Incumbent	D	"Fairly robust Democratic primary"	No mention about the general election
	Izaak Ruiz		D	"Fairly robust Democratic primary"	No mention about the general election
	Cesar Aleman		R	None	None
	Joseph Dailey		R	None	None
12
	Anastasia Travers	Incumbent	D	None
	Lawrence Hudson		R	None
13
	Julie Willoughby	Incumbent	R	She "is fairly strong, as is the former state representative there, Jeff Weninger"	"there's no primary challenge. It's going to be, two Democrats versus two Republicans. The third Democrat actually did withdraw."
	Jeff Weninger		R
	Nicholas Gonzales		D	None	None
	Brandy Reese		D	None	None
	Cody Hannah		Green	None	None
14
	Laurin Hendrix	Incumbent	R	Very robust GOP primary	Anyone who wins the primary will will the general election
	Khyl Powell		R	"I definitely give the advantage to Laurin in terms of that second seat. A couple of factors. One, Laurin, it looks like he's running with Kyle Powell. And, you know, anytime you have someone who runs with an incumbent on the team, there's an advantage there."	Anyone who wins the primary will will the general election
	Andrew Jackson		R	"a well-known activist, their pastor, leader in the community. So he's going to be in the mix as well."	Anyone who wins the primary will will the general election
	Lalani Hunsaker		R	"I will say Lalani Hunsaker is going to be very well funded and is very known in that area, and it's got a lot of support. So I think that the race probably comes down to for that second seat between Lalani Hunsaker and Khyl Powell."	Anyone who wins the primary will will the general election
	Joel Coen		R	None	Anyone who wins the primary will will the general election
	Scott Menor		Green	None	None
15
	Alex Stovall		R	"There's a tremendous amount of controversy about him. He ran in Congress in two districts, and there were some court proceedings that occurred. And so I'm not sure if he'll end up sort of making it to the end."	Anyone who wins the primary will will the general election
	Michael Way		R	"Michael is also going to have a significant amount of funding, though, is very well connected to the community and connected to a well known entity, an organization out there. And so I would say that second seat is a toss up between all four of those, even though there may be a potential that folks run on a, run as a team in terms of district four in the general election."	Anyone who wins the primary will will the general election
	Peter Anello		R	"I'm hearing rumors that there could be a team up, between the incumbent, Neil Carter and Peter Anello."	Anyone who wins the primary will will the general election
	Neal Carter	Incumbent	R		Anyone who wins the primary will will the general election
	Barbara Beneitone		D		None
16
	Keith Seaman	Incumbent	D		Republicans have a very, very good, good chance of picking up this district./It will be very difficult for him to hold on to that seat.
	Teresa Martinez		R	Martinez and Lopez on the same team
	Chris Lopez		R	Martinez and Lopez on the same team
	Gabby Mercer		R	Mercer and Hudelson on the same team
	Rob Hudelson		R	Mercer and Hudelson on the same team
17
	Rachel Jones	Incumbent	R	Anna Orth did end up making it on the ballot. And she is challenging in the primary, the two Republican incumbents, Rachel Jones and Cory McGaha. That's something to keep in mind there.	They are being challenged by Kevin Volk.
	Cory McGarr	Incumbent	R	Anna Orth did end up making it on the ballot. And she is challenging in the primary, the two Republican incumbents, Rachel Jones and Cory McGaha. That's something to keep in mind there.	They are being challenged by Kevin Volk.
	Anna Orth		R	Anna Orth did end up making it on the ballot. And she is challenging in the primary, the two Republican incumbents, Rachel Jones and Cory McGaha. That's something to keep in mind there.	They are being challenged by Kevin Volk.
	Kevin Volk		D	Unopposed	"The second House seat, the one that Kevin Volk  is challenging. And I think that second House seat is a toss up. And I think there's a lot of Republican focus and Democratic focus on that."
18
	Nancy Gutierrez	Incumbent	D	None	None
	Christopher Mathis	Incumbent	D	None	None
	Leonard Rosenblum		R	None	None
19
	Lupe Diaz	Incumbent	R	None	None
	Gail Griffin	Incumbent	R	None	None
	Gregg Frostrom Jr.		D	None	None
20
	Alma Hernandez		D	None	None
	Betty Villegas		D	None	None
21
	Consuelo Hernandez		D	"They do have a challenger. I would handicap it towards the two incumbents, but that is one to to watch."	None
	Stephanie Stahl Hamilton		D	"They do have a challenger. I would handicap it towards the two incumbents, but that is one to to watch."	None
	Briana Ortega		D	None	None
	Christopher Kibbey		R	None	None
22
	Lupe Contreras	Incumbent	D	"I would definitely give the handicap to the incumbent, and whoever that he chooses to team up with"	None
	Elda Luna-Nájera	Incumbent	D	None	None
	Betsy Munoz		D	None	None
	Jen Wynne		D	None	None
	Blaine Griffin		R	None	None
	Diana Jones		R	None	None
23
	Michelle Peña	Incumbent	R	None	"I would put it as a toss up, I think based on what we're seeing in the way that she's conducted herself in this first session, I think she stands a very good chance of being reelected. Obviously the Democrats are not going to or not going to go down easy. This is a district that had low turnout."
	Marianna Sandoval	Incumbent	D	None	None
	Jame Holmes		D	None	None
	Matias Rosales		D	None	None
24
	Lydia Hernandez	Incumbent	D	None	None
	Anna Abeytia		D	None	None
	Hector Jaramillo		D	None	None
25
	Michael Carbone	Incumbent	R	"I definitely would handicap it for Michael Carbone"	"I definitely would handicap it for Michael Carbone"
	Nick Kupper		R	None	None
	Steve Markegard		R	None	None
	Gary Snyder		R	None	None
	William Olear		D	None	None
26
	Cesar Aguilar	Incumbent	D	None	None
	Quantá Crews	Incumbent	R	None	None
	Skyla Edwards		R	None	None
	Frank Edwards		R	None	None
27
	Lisa Fink		R	Whoever wins the primary will win the general election	Whoever wins the primary will win the general election
	Brian Morris		R	Whoever wins the primary will win the general election	Whoever wins the primary will win the general election
	Tony Rivero		R	Whoever wins the primary will win the general election	Whoever wins the primary will win the general election
	Linda Busam		R	Whoever wins the primary will win the general election	Whoever wins the primary will win the general election
	Deborah Howard		D
28
	Susan Black		R	Ran previously in this district	None
	David Livingsston	Incumbent	R	Has an advantage	None
	Beverly Pingerelli	Incumbent	R	Has an advantage	None
	Barbara Fike		D	None	None
29
	Steve Montenegro	Incumbent	R	None	None
	James Taylor		R	Mentioned  by Khalaf	Not on Ballotpedia's list (Rep. Austin Smith said Taylor agreed to run as write-in candidate)
	Amy Husted		R	Mentioned  by Khalaf	Not on Ballotpedia's list (Husted filed as a write-in candidate)
	Tanairi Ochoa-Martinez		D	None	None
	Thomas Tzitzura		D	None	None
	David Raymer		D	None	None
30
	Leo Biasiucci	Incumbent	R	None	None
	John Gillette	Incumbent	R	None	None
	Monica Timberlake		D	None	None