Grand Canyon Times

Former President Donald Trump (R) leads President Biden (D) by ten points among Arizona voters in the 2024 race for the White House.

That’s according to a poll of Arizona voters released today by American Greatness.

Trump leads Biden 42 to 32 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) at 13%. In a two-way race, Trump is ahead Biden 48-42 percent, with 11% undecided.

The former president's lead has expanded over the current president since a March poll, which was conducted by the same polling firm, showed Trump up by four points. 

Trump also leads Biden among Hispanic voters, 33 to 32 percent, with Kennedy, Jr. polling 17%. Among 18-34 year olds, Trump also leads, with 32 percent to Biden's 28% and Kennedy, Jr.'s 20%. 

“These results show two super important realities of the race in battlegrounds," Steve Cortes, founder of the League of American Workers (LAW), the polling contributor for American Greatness, told Grand Canyon Times. "First, Trump materially expanded his Arizona lead after the sham New York verdict."

"Second, normally Democratic constituencies rally to Trump, especially Hispanics and young voters," said Cortes.

Inflation and Jobs

The poll found that 54% of voters say they “were better off financially" when Trump was president, and 69% of Arizona voters said Biden isn't doing enough on inflation.

These results come as the Phoenix metropolitan area had its "38th consecutive month of inflation above the standard target of 2.0% annually" in April 2024, reported the Common Sense Institute. The institute also reported that, since 2020, "Phoenix households would have had to spend $34,078 more over the past 3 years to buy the same things."

An analysis published earlier today by the Grand Canyon Times found that the cost of cereal at Fry's Food Stores in Arizona has increased 303% since 2020, outpacing the supposed 2.1% inflation rate for food last year, as reported the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Times analysis tracked additional price increases over the government-reported inflation rate for items such as ground beef, potatoes, breakfast sausage, and ice cream.

The increased costs of food and other goods has had an impact on 83% of Arizona voters, according to the poll, with 61% of voters saying inflation has impacted their lives a "great deal."

A plurality of Arizona voters, 43%, said the economy has gotten "worse for all" Americans during the Biden presidency, and 56% of voters said Biden hasn't spent enough time addressing the issue of job creation.

Border Security

Border security also factors into the views of Arizona voters, with 59% saying that the Biden Administration isn't doing enough to stem the flow of illegal aliens into the state and country. 

These results come as the U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) reported 406,441illegal alien encounters in Arizona’s Tucson Sector thus far in Fiscal Year 2024. They also come a week after 6,900 illegal aliens were apprehended in the Tucson sector, which is an increase from the 4,900 illegals apprehended during the same week last year. 

President Joe Biden (D) took office on January 20, 2021, the same day he signed a "Proclamation on the Termination Of Emergency With Respect To The Southern Border Of The United States And Redirection Of Funds Diverted To Border Wall Construction." This order said the Trump Administration's declaration of of a national emergency at the southern border was "unwarranted" and paused all funds for the construction of the U.S-Mexico border wall begun under President Trump.

A March poll by the same firm that conducted the American Greatness poll found that 72% of Arizona voters think the federal government is weak at securing the U.S. borders. 52% of voters said the federal government’s job performance on the border is “very weak," while only 24% of voters said the government’s performance on the border is “somewhat” or “very” strong. 

Exactly half of Democrats rated the federal government’s border performance as weak. 70% of Independents and 95% of Republicans responded the same.

The American Greatness poll was conducted among 600 likely Arizona voters on June 10-17, 2024 by North Star Public Opinion Research.

American Greatness is a conservative news and opinion website founded in 2016. It features articles from political commentators and public figures, and focuses on American conservatism, politics, and culture.